According to Forbes, new data is challenging the dominant narrative that AI will immediately destroy jobs. A report from Vanguard covering mid-2023 to mid-2025 found that occupations with high exposure to AI saw employment growth of 1.7%, compared to just 0.8% for all other occupations. Even more striking, real wages in those high-exposure roles grew by 3.8%, vastly outpacing the 0.7% growth elsewhere. A separate survey by Teneo adds context, with a majority of CEOs saying AI will cause an increase in hiring at all levels. This early data suggests AI adoption is currently correlated with more jobs and higher pay, not less.
The Productivity Paradox
So what’s going on here? If AI is supposed to automate tasks, why are we seeing more hiring? I think there are a couple of plausible explanations. First, we’re in a messy transition phase. Companies are building new AI-powered workflows on top of the old ways of working, which means they need extra people to manage the change. That’s probably temporary. But the second, more interesting possibility is that AI is genuinely boosting productivity enough to justify expanding teams. Basically, if a tool makes each worker 50% more effective, hiring another skilled worker to use that tool becomes a fantastic investment. The productivity gains outpace the wage costs. That’s a radically different story than the one we usually hear.
The Real Story Is Upskilling
Here’s the thing: this trend, if it continues, makes skills the entire battlefield. The baseline capability expected for many jobs is going to rise. A worker who can effectively partner with an AI assistant will be dramatically more valuable than one who can’t. That’s the exciting part—people can become more capable. But it’s also the scary part. Jobs that were once considered accessible entry points, like retail, might get a lot harder to land. The Teneo report notes customer-facing AI projects have high ROI, meaning retailers will push AI to the store level. An AI-assisted store associate can provide better service and may command higher pay, but they’ll also need more training. The barrier to entry rises. This isn’t about job elimination; it’s about job transformation. And that transformation requires serious investment in training, something not every company or worker has access to.
What To Watch In 2026
The next 12-24 months are crucial. This early data doesn’t prove AI will permanently grow employment. It might just be showing us the “installation” phase before an “implementation” phase where efficiencies kick in. We need to watch for clearer signals. Are training budgets actually expanding? Do job postings start listing new, AI-related skills as requirements? And critically, do the productivity gains show up in the economic data as lower costs, faster growth, or better products? If the link between AI spending, hiring, and wage growth holds—especially in operational roles—it will strongly suggest AI is acting as a broad productivity upgrade. That’s the optimistic take. The pessimistic one is that this is a temporary bubble of experimentation. One of the most important charts to watch will be the one in the Vanguard report tracking this correlation. If it breaks, the narrative flips again. But for now, the message to workers is clear: leaning into AI, not fearing it, looks like the smarter career bet.
