According to TechCrunch, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei spoke at The New York Times DealBook Summit on Wednesday, addressing whether the AI industry is in a bubble and taking veiled shots at competitors like OpenAI. He declined a simple yes-or-no answer but warned some players are making “timing errors” and not managing risk well, even using the term “YOLO-ing” to describe their approach. Amodei also discussed the risk of GPU depreciation as new chips make older ones obsolete, noting Anthropic makes conservative assumptions. He revealed staggering revenue growth: from zero to $100 million in 2023, then to $1 billion in 2024, and projected to land between $8-10 billion by the end of this year. Despite this, he said it would be “really dumb” to assume the pattern continues, citing extreme uncertainty in future planning for data centers and compute.
The YOLO risk and the OpenAI subtext
Here’s the thing: when a CEO uses slang like “YOLO-ing” in a serious business context, they’re not just talking about abstract market forces. They’re calling out specific behavior. And the subtext here, with the references to competitors who “like big numbers” and the mention of authoritarian adversaries (China), is a pretty clear dig at Sam Altman and OpenAI’s aggressive, scale-at-all-costs playbook. Amodei’s warning about companies that might need a government “backstop” for their loans is a direct reference to OpenAI CFO’s recent walked-back comments. He’s framing this as a matter of responsible stewardship versus reckless gambling with the entire company. It’s a fascinating, and very public, philosophical split at the top of the AI world.
The core dilemma: planning for an uncertain payoff
Amodei actually nails the central tension in the industry right now. The potential economic value of AI is massive, but *when* it fully materializes is anyone’s guess. So you have to build data centers and buy billions in chips today for demand that might not peak for years. Get it wrong, and you’re either leaving money on the table or bankrupt. This isn’t like ordering more servers for a web app. The lead times and capital intensity are on a completely different planet. He’s basically admitting that even with Anthropic‘s insane growth curve, they’re planning for the “lower side” because the volatility is “very disconcerting.” That’s a sobering message from someone in the driver’s seat.
Is this a bubble?
So, is it a bubble? Amodei’s complex answer is probably the right one. The underlying technology is transformative—that part isn’t hype. But the financial ecosystem around it? That feels bubbly. When companies are spending more on compute than they can possibly earn back in the near term, betting on a future payoff that’s not guaranteed, you have the classic ingredients. The GPU depreciation point is huge, too. It’s a hidden time bomb on balance sheets if next-gen chips make your $50,000 H100s worth a fraction of that in two years. Some players are absolutely making that “timing error.” The question is who. Amodei is positioning Anthropic as the cautious adult in the room, but with $10B in annual revenue, they’re still pedal-to-the-metal. They’re just trying to have better brakes.
